Wednesday, 30 September 2009

USD: Selectivity Remains the Key

USD: Selectivity Remains the Key

The USD has satisfied the bulls and bears in this week the question is in which pair as the bull and in which is the bear.
ForexCult.com mentioned that "although we expect a continual rally in the USD, traders need to be careful of what they buy." having that said because we had indicated that the USD could rally against the Eur and GBP but was turning resistance very close against the JP Yen.
Those moves that we were looking have already happened and are now becoming a bit over extended. However and for the most, the downtrend in the USD against the JP Yen and its up trends against the Euro currency and GBP should remain intact but being more precise will continue to be the key to trading currencies in the near future.
The marquee event of the week will be the United States retail sales report and even though it seems that consumer spending will falter, it may be a bit better and not such a bad report as market and speculator might have suggested.
The drop in consumer confidence and non-farm payrolls point to weakness, but the coming rise in food and the energy prices along with the stronger earnings from local companies such as Wal-Mart and Costco probably suggest otherwise.
The main reason why the market got a huge response to this report is because of its affect on a central bank's monetary policy decision. However with the Fed, a pause in Jun has already been discounted by the market.
The United States economy has been weakened massively in the past few months and will probably or shall we say quite surely to weaken in the coming months as well considering the next coming report, but after having cut interest rates by 325bp since August, the Fed has decided that it is time to shift their focus to inflation.
Oil (on $126 pick) and corn prices hit a new record high, making price pressures a growing concern and making harder for the proletarians to live peacefully.
Unfortunately for the Fed, they have no room to raise interest rates, leaving the USD as one of their only tools to curb inflationary pressures. By hinting that they will be taking a break from cutting interest rates, they have already gained some stability and control in the USD and in addition to the retail sales report, we shall also expect consumer prices, the Philly Fed survey, industrial production, and housing starts in next week.
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