Friday, 9 October 2009

المتداول العربىForex Intervention: Back on the Table?

المتداول العربىForex Intervention: Back on the Table?

With the Dollar rallying to multi-year highs and the Yen surging to multi-decade highs, some analysts have begun to re-assess the possibility of Central Banks intervening in forex markets. As if on cue, leaders from the G8 countries also released a statement expressing their concern.

It is not a stretch to say the last few weeks have been awash with stories about emerging market economies that have been destabilized as a result of the rapid depreciation of their currencies, as well as companies that were forced into bankruptcy as a result of currency speculation gone bad.

Meanwhile, the US and Japan are certainly nervous about the impact of more expensive currencies on their respective export sectors.

Ironically, it was only six months ago that some analysts were gaging the same probability of intervention; at that time, however, the purpose would have been to prop up the Dollar, whereas now it would be to bring it back down to earth.

I suppose the moral of the story is that in forex terms, six months is practically an eternity. Besides, as we reported yesterday, both the Dollar and the Yen have already begun to fade.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

"But, this is not a currency crisis" said a foreign exchange strategist. "This is a liquidity crisis, a growth crisis, a confidence crisis. As such, probably the first step should not be to intervene to save currencies."
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