Friday, 9 October 2009

المتداول العربىWill China Fund US Deficit?

المتداول العربىWill China Fund US Deficit?

When all is said and done, the US government will have injected trillions of dollars into the economy, in the form of bailouts, guarantees, economic stimuli, etc.

Whether it will have the desired effect is debatable.

The question that no one seems to be asking is, "How is the government going to finance such exorbitant spending?" It appears that China, which has become of of the largest holders of US government debt, will continue to participate- not necessarily because it wants to, but because it doesn't have a choice.

China's economy remains heavily reliant on the export sector to drive growth.

Because its exchange rate regime does notpermit the RMB to fluctuate freely, the proceeds from the consequent trade surplus must be invested abroad, rather than domestically.

For both symbolic and economic reasons, it seems the bulk of the surplus will continue to be invested in the US, probably in safer assets like US Treasury Securities.

This is certainly good news for deficit hawks and Dollar bulls.

The Wall Street Journal reports:
Even if China wanted to invest outside the U.S., it couldn't. If China recycled its foreign currency into, for instance, the European Union or Japan, it would effectively force those trading partners to run large trade deficits with China, which neither can absorb.